Ep10 - The Balkans: Europe’s Next War?
In a previous episode, we shared the opinion of the Italian historian Alessandro Barbero, who, while analyzing the current situation in Europe, found some unsettling similarities with the events that led to the First World War. According to Barbero, the European arms race happening today was one of the main causes that sparked the war in 1914.
In this episode, we intend to go a step further, meticulously analyzing both the events that occurred before the outbreak of the 1914 war and what has been happening in Europe in recent years. We will draw a parallel between two historical periods, very distant and in some ways different, to highlight a very real risk that is manifesting today and which we can summarize with this question: will the Balkans once again be the fuse capable of triggering a new world conflict?
As usual, our analysis begins by examining the historical facts. Historical facts are not isolated; therefore, to understand what is happening today, it is necessary to examine the events of the years leading up to the outbreak of the First World War, the facts that occurred during the so-called Cold War, the events preceding the Russia-Ukraine war, the current economic situation of the European Union, and the current situation in the Balkans.
As is well known, the cause of the First World War was the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand—then heir to the throne—in Sarajevo in 1914 by a Serbian-Bosnian nationalist. This was, in common opinion, the casus bellis. But here, something in this narrative doesn't add up. The question that should spontaneously arise is: how can a single murder cause a world conflict? It seems absurd. And in fact, it is, because the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand was not the actual cause that triggered the conflict, but rather the pretext.
To understand the real causes of the first world conflict, we need to go even further back in time, turning our attention to 1878. After the Congress of Berlin in 1878, Austria-Hungary, the so-called “Dual Monarchy,” obtained the right to occupy and administer Bosnia and Herzegovina. But the province still remained formally part of the Ottoman Empire. In other words, Austria-Hungary held military and administrative control, but the Ottoman Empire retained legal sovereignty.
Let's move forward a bit. It is now around 1908, and the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, located in the Western Balkans, is still nominally under the control of the Ottoman Empire. However, in July 1908, an important event occurred. After a coup, the Young Turk movement initiated the constitutional reform of the Ottoman Empire.
The Young Turks (a nationalist and reformist movement) overthrew Sultan Abdul Hamid II and restored the Ottoman constitution. They then announced important reforms concerning the parliament, elections, and the modernization of the Ottoman Empire but, above all, the claim of real control over all territories still formally Ottoman, including the Balkans. This change frightened Aehrenthal, the then Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister, for two reasons:
- The risk of losing legal control over Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- The risk of a "re-Islamized" or autonomist Bosnia.
In fact, if the Ottoman Empire became strong, centralized, and constitutional again, it could demand the withdrawal of the Austrian occupation and the return of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Furthermore, the Young Turks promoted a united Ottoman Empire with citizens of all ethnicities and religions; an administrative reform that could have included Bosnia and a return of central power to Istanbul. This could have given hope to the Bosnian Muslim population, who still saw the Ottoman Empire as legitimate. It could also have undermined Habsburg control, which was already fragile among the different ethnicities (Serbs, Croats, Bosniaks) and provoked the creation of an autonomist or pro-Ottoman movement in Bosnia.
Therefore, in September 1908, Aehrenthal met with the Russian Foreign Minister Aleksandr Petrovič Izvol'skij, accepting the Russian proposal for the annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina in exchange for Austrian support for the passage of Russian warships through the "Straits" (the Dardanelles, the Sea of Marmara, and the Bosphorus). Therefore, when the annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina by the Dual Monarchy was announced on October 6, 1908, there were violent reactions from Serbia alone. However, when Russian Minister Izvol'skij discovered that the United Kingdom and France opposed the passage of Russian ships through the Straits, Russia withdrew its provisional support for the Austrian annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, supporting Serbia's claims. The situation became serious, and for some time, a war seemed imminent. Let's keep in mind the position of the United Kingdom: it opposed the passage of Russian ships through the Straits. This is important to remember, because as we will see, the United Kingdom also played an important role during the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in 2022.
Serbia had to come to terms with the Habsburg monarchy after a German ultimatum (March 1909) had forced Russia to withdraw its support, and after the Turkish government had accepted the Austrian annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina in exchange for monetary compensation. The Bosnian crisis was resolved, but the Serbs, deeply wounded in their national pride, continued to foment unrest in the southern Slavic provinces. Let's keep in mind the role of Germany, because we will find it again today acting as a catalyst.
So the actors were not just two—the Austro-Hungarian Empire on one side and Serbia on the other—but many more: Austria-Hungary, Serbia, Russia, Germany, and the Ottoman Empire. Furthermore, even then, there were alliances between states, a bit like what happens today with NATO countries.
There was the Triple Alliance, a defensive military pact stipulated on May 20, 1882, in Vienna by the German and Austro-Hungarian empires (which already formed the Dual Alliance) and the Kingdom of Italy. The alliance was supported primarily by Germany, which was eager to politically isolate France.
Also, at that time, the Triple Entente was in force, a system of political-military agreements between the United Kingdom, France, and Russia.
So we have Austria-Hungary, Germany, and the Kingdom of Italy in the Triple Alliance, and France, the United Kingdom, and Russia in the Triple Entente.
The countries involved were: Austria-Hungary, Germany, the Kingdom of Italy, France, the United Kingdom, Russia, and the Ottoman Empire.
Germany is an important actor because we can draw a parallel: it was against Russia in 1909 when it gave Russia the ultimatum to withdraw its support for Serbia, and it is against Russia again today when it militarily and economically helps Ukraine.
At this point, we need to take another leap, moving to the period of the so-called Cold War. This is an important historical period to examine because the events that occurred during that time still influence the geopolitical situation today.
The Cold War was a period of geopolitical tension between the United States of America and the Western Bloc on one side, and the Soviet Union and the so-called Eastern Bloc on the other, which began with the deterioration of relations between the Western Allies and the Soviet Union immediately after the end of the Second World War, and ended with the fall of the Berlin Wall (1989) and the subsequent dissolution of the Soviet Union (1991).
Attention, because this is what the mainstream Western narrative claims. In reality, as we will see, tensions between NATO (i.e., the Western Allies) and Russia did not end with the collapse of the Berlin Wall; in fact, they never ended. But let's proceed in order.
NATO, the Western Bloc, was established in 1949, and six years later, in 1955, the Soviet Union responded with the stipulation of the Warsaw Pact. Both NATO and the Warsaw Pact were essentially military alliances. NATO is still active, while the Warsaw Pact was dissolved in 1991. Also in 1991, a few months later, the Soviet Union was dissolved.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, most of the former members of the Warsaw Pact joined NATO and the European Union. Currently, there are 32 NATO member countries.
During the Cold War period, there was no lack of crises, among which we must necessarily mention the Cuban Missile Crisis. The Cuban Missile Crisis was a state of serious political and diplomatic tension between the United States of America and the Soviet Union, generated by the deployment of Soviet ballistic missiles in Cuban territory. The episode, which occurred during the Kennedy presidency, was one of the most critical moments of the Cold War and the most at risk of triggering a nuclear conflict. The Soviet Union deployed missiles with nuclear warheads following the attempt to invade Cuba by the United States in 1961. The United States, in fact, attempted to overthrow the government of Fidel Castro in 1961, planning an invasion—called the Bay of Pigs invasion—with the help of the CIA. The operation, planned by CIA director Allen Welsh Dulles during the Eisenhower administration, was launched in April 1961, less than three months after John Fitzgerald Kennedy's inauguration as President. The Cuban armed forces, equipped and trained by pro-Soviet nations of the Eastern Bloc, defeated the invasion force in three days of fighting.
The Bay of Pigs is not an isolated event, as it represents one of the countless attempts by the U.S. and NATO to interfere with the governments of other countries. Speaking of U.S. and NATO interference, here's what Wikipedia reports, citing "The New York Times" and "Partisan Electoral Interventions by the Great Powers" by Dov H. Levin:
"United States interference in foreign politics has included both explicit and covert actions aimed at changing, replacing, or preserving foreign governments. The United States has carried out at least 81 known interventions, either explicit or covert, in international politics during the period 1946-2000."
Why is it important to remember U.S. interference? Because the U.S. is the architect of continuous tensions, created with the support of the CIA and NATO. Among the countless interferences, it is essential to talk about those perpetrated in the Balkans and those that caused the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
We will now begin to examine the situation in Ukraine. The Russian invasion of Ukraine occurred in February 2022, but that date represents the culmination of a strategy pursued in the preceding years by the United States and NATO...